Guam braces for population explosion with Marines from Okinawa
HAGATNA ―
Guam is bracing for a deluge of people when thousands of American troops and their families relocate to the island from Japan in what will perhaps be the biggest military buildup in the Pacific since World War ll.
Already concerns are being raised over the ‘‘boomtown effect’’ of the rapid and large spike in Guam’s population and related economic activity on the island’s limited resources and inadequate infrastructure.
At least 8,600 Marines and 630 army personnel plus their 9,900 dependents are expected to be relocated to Guam from Okinawa. There will also be a transient military component of as many as 9,000 troops.
Joining the crowd will be the thousands of foreign workers needed to build new roads, deep-raft wharves, aircraft carrier berthing, barracks, houses and similar infrastructure on Guam and on Tinian off Saipan, 160 kilometers northeast of Guam.
Construction will begin this year despite funding concerns that stem from the new Japanese government’s reluctance to share in the multi-million dollar relocation cost.
The immediate concern is whether the Japanese government will honor the 2006 deal struck by its predecessor to chip in $6.09 billion into the relocation, which is estimated to cost between $12 billion and $15 billion.
The biggest concern, however, is the social cost of the relocation.
Relocation of most of the Marines and their families will start in 2014, and the peak in construction activities and expenditures will coincide with the arrival of the marines.
‘‘At this peak, the total increase in Guam residents from off-island would be an estimated 79,178 people,’’ said the draft study Environmental Impact Statement commissioned by the U.S. Defense Department.
After 2014, when infrastructure projects are completed, the population is expected to level off to an estimated 33,608 people, on top of Guam’s current population of about 178,000.
Based on the estimates of the project planners, the proposed actions would result in approximately $12 billion, in 2008 dollars, worth of construction occurring on Guam between 2010 and 2016.
Although the desired completion date for Marine relocation is 2014, the construction will likely continue into 2016, the study notes.
Guam’s population will dramatically increase by more than 25% in the four to six years of relocation, said Paul Shintaku, executive director of the Guam Buildup Office.
‘‘The impacts will be wide-ranging and far-reaching. It would be every aspect of the community and our social structure,’’ Shintaku said.
‘‘It’s overwhelming,’’ added Shintaku’s deputy Nora Camacho. ‘‘It can be from traffic to the hospital to our social services, schools, transport of goods coming into Guam and goods going out of Guam to Micronesia. It doesn’t only affect Guam. It affects the entire Micronesia because we’re a regional hub.’‘
Labor seekers from the Philippines, the United States, Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of Marshall Islands and even Samoa are expected to descend on the island.
‘‘There is cause for concern over the impacts on crime and social order due to other factors,’’ the study says, adding construction booms ‘‘are typically accompanied by a sense of loosened norms and social disorder.’‘
‘‘In-migrants from the Freely Associated States of Micronesia―whose numbers may increase in both the construction and operational stages due to more job opportunities―have high crime rates associated with adapting to less traditional social structures,’’ it says. ‘‘There is a potential for more prostitution, alcohol and substance abuse, and family violence associated with young military populations in general, including sailors taking shore leave after weeks at sea.’‘
‘‘The particular reputation of Marines as fighters could well trigger a transitional period of adjustment in which local young men test themselves against Marines in fights,’’ it says, adding a ‘‘potential social friction’’ between military personnel and off-island civilian in-migrants.’‘
There are also concerns over the possibility that some of the workers will stay on the island for good and contribute to the ‘‘growing minoritization’’ of Chamorros due to influx of other groups.
Prior to World War II, Chamorros comprised more than 90% of Guam’s population. The percentage dropped below 50% by 1980 and fell to 42% by 2000, the study says.
‘‘There will be an expansion in non-Chamorro voting population that could affect the proportion of Chamorro office-holders and government workers, eventually affecting the current government budgets and activities dedicated to cultural issues and practices. It could also affect outcomes of any future votes about Guam’s political status,’’ it says.
‘‘The buildup is so beneficial, beyond our comprehension and beyond what you see in the past,’’ Camacho said.
Guam Chamber of Commerce President David Leddy says there is overwhelming support on the relocation of the Marines to Guam.
‘‘We treat it as another industry,’’ he said. ‘‘The local government is the ‘‘biggest beneficiary in terms of revenues that can be generated from the economic activities.’‘
‘‘There are positive and negative impacts. We just have to weigh the positive and negative and see what’s good for the people,’’ Leddy said.